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Australian Open Preview

Joel Drucker

Todd Martin put it to me best: “The Australian Open is early enough so that we haven’t gotten cranky or upset with our results. We’re fresh, we’re hungry and it’s a nice place for playing good tennis.”

So barely has the year started and it’s time for a Grand Slam. Ideally, I’d schedule the Australian Open in March, giving the event and tennis year an engaging series of plot lines. But who asked me?

Justine Henin-Hardenne and Venus Williams have already dropped out and that's just the beginning.

A few withdrawals are disturbing. On the men’s side, sad to see constant contender David Nalbandian gone; he’s got the game, but is his window of confidence starting to close? Even more distressing to see Justine Henin-Hardenne out due to unstated personal reasons (divorce is most likely). And Venus Williams? Annoying, but not surprising. Here’s more on the more notable men and women:

Men

Keen Contenders

Andy Murray: Ready to step into the upper division or still requiring seasoning? Spent much time with coach Gilbert working out at Bollettieri Academy in off-season – seeking to add physical heft to body and game, most notably on serve. Nice start by reaching Doha finals, so now let’s see how well his nicely-textured game pans out at the Slam level. While his brain is first-rate, the physical part is still quite raw. We’re 2-3 years away from seeing his best stuff.

David Nalbandian: Darn tough on all surfaces, but at 25, I wonder how much he truly believes in his ability to win Slams.

Ivan Ljubicic: Lots of skills – particularly serve and backhand – and strong work ethic have brought him near the pinnacle. But like the absent Nalbandian, I wonder how much Ljubicic truly believes in his ability to win Slams. Ivan plays the daylights out of the tour, and as a result has often come up flat in the big events.

Nikolay Davydenko: No man who works this hard and plays so well should be penalized for his lack of charisma. Yes, he looks like the bad guy in a James Bond movie. But those dudes had some game, and so does Davydenko. One wonders, though, if like Ljubicic and Nalbandian, if he’s got the right mix of scheduling-pacing and raw illogical confidence to believe he can play lead vocals instead of be a kindly companion to the likes of Federer and Nadal.

Marcos Baghdatis: I think of him as the Mediterranean Guga Kuerten: the happy warrior with bounce in his step and a relaxed fluid ball-striking style. Last year was the surprise ascent. Now, he goes from being the hunter to the hunted. I hope indeed he’s up for the challenge.

Roddick made great gains under new coach Jimmy Connors and Blake reached a career high but both need to reach at least the quarters to make an impact.

Andy Roddick: Couldn’t have asked for a better start once joining forces with Jimmy Connors. U.S. Open final run and holding match points versus Federer in Shanghai encouraging and pointed need for more improvement. So will he continue to make gains? Will be interesting to see how increased aggression and early-ball striking efforts fare on high-bouncing Aussie Open courts. Needs to at least reach quarters to keep the beat moving.

James Blake: Strong showings at small events and a few quality efforts at others – finals at Indian Wells and Shanghai, quarters at U.S. Open – boosted ultra-likeable Blake to career-high number four ranking. But there’s still something a bit squishy about his stock value. Needs to at last win a five-setter (0-9). Australian will nicely showcase athleticism. Service quality is critical tool in aiding electrifying shotmaking game. As Andre Agassi once noted, Blake is akin to a fighter plane that burns up a lot of fuel – and when he’s soaring, look out. As with Roddick, anything less than the quarters will disappoint.

And a note to all contenders: Quit venerating Federer. No, you don’t have to trash-talk him, but by pushing him so high up the mountain you’re wiping your hands of the mission: figure out how to make life hard for Roger and at least give it a shot.

Federer has one five out of the last six slams, so picking him isn't too much of a stretch.

Going Out On A Limb

Roger Federer: What more can I say? Go ahead, you take the field, I’ll take Federer. Will be interesting to see what more he’s adding to his game. Was fascinating to see how aggressively he played versus Nadal in Shanghai.

Rafael Nadal: Early in his career he missed out on two straight French Opens and of course has since become a stud in Paris. Last year injuries kept Nadal out of Australia. In ’06, high-bouncing Rebound Ace court might have fit his game like a glove. I’m told court’s playing faster this year, but still, Nadal’s in the hunt here. Big questions: Will groin injury that forced him out of Sydney warmup be a factor in Melbourne? Has he added more to his game, such as better serving and improved volleying skills? Wimbledon ’06 finals effort was good stuff, proving he could be up there with Federer, but second half of the year threw him back into the pack. ’07 a critical year to prove he’s indeed a man for all surfaces.

Spin The Wheel

Marat Safin: Won here in ’05 with stylish and gutty wins over Federer and Hewitt, but at this point it’s hard to see him generating the sustained interest for life as a pro. But man, on a given 15-minute period you’d think he should be right in Federer’s face.

Marat Safin is the last man to beat Federer at a slam that wasn't played on red clay, but does he care enough?

Lleyton Hewitt: What gives, bagging a coach on the eve of a Slam? A well-traveled 25, Hewitt – one of the finest competitors of the last ten years -- might well be seeing a game that’s passed on him by. Calf muscle injury that forced him out of Sydney doesn’t help.

Mario Ancic: Three years younger than Hewitt, has at last cracked top ten, proving adage that attacking, all-court players take longer to ripen. Has skills to win at Wimbledon, and if nerves and groundstrokes hold up, could surprise in Melbourne too.

Novak Djokovic: Understated skills but the guy has power and balance.

Richard Gasquet: Hope to see stylish Frenchman begin to add yet more function to his attractive form.

Tommy Haas and Fernando Gonzalez: Tommy with the backhand, Fernando with the forehand. Skills galore, but each still seeking to put it all together for two weeks.

Tomas Berdych: A star in ascent, his crackling groundstrokes could take him into the top ten this year. Baseline game nice fit for Australia.

Chris Guccione: Next top 20 Australian? Massive serve and Rusedski-like game could shake things up.

Women

Front and Center

With world number one Henin-Hardenne on the sidelines Mauresmo, Sharapova, and Clijsters are the leading contenders

Maria Sharapova: With chief rival Henin-Hardenne out, a big opening for the girl with the golden grunt to seize the day off the heels of legacy-building U.S. Open victory. Keys include health, efficiency and, yes, the occasional addition of diversity to her game. In large part her game is greater than the sum of its parts, but earns high marks for improved movement and fitness (that in turn help her make smarter decisions during points). I’d love to see her go toe-to-toe with Venus or Serena.

Kim Clijsters: She said in ’05 that ’07 would be her last year on the tour. An odd strategy, but this is a woman determined to do little more than speak with racket and be kind in so doing. The physical skills are superb, but how much does she care to embrace the intangible “X” factor that most champions have?

Amelie Mauresmo: Ditto per Clijsters, but I think there’s a part of Mauresmo that indeed wants to squeeze out more. At last in ’06 she got the Slam monkey off her back. But in big matches can she play more to win than merely to not lose? Pay attention to forehand service return on big points. An eminently likeable champion.

Question Marks

Serena Williams: Rest assured, she’ll let the world know how much it’s all about her. But for all her verbal narcissism, in the heat of battle Serena is a ferocious competitor. But her vast indifference to tennis over the last two years leaves me scratching my head. Would be superb to see her totally dedicate body and mind for three more years. And you know what? Even in victory, I’m tired of watching her spray balls left and right.

Martina's remarkable comeback was the feel good story of '06 but many doubt she has the juice to win another slam.

Nadia Petrova: Lanky Russian has many tools, but sometimes, somehow, the wheels fall off. Improved forehand is key to success. At best, plays comprehensive all-court tennis. At worst, could show up exceptionally puny.

Martina Hingis: Engaging, stylish, a guaranteed Hall of Famer who earned fine marks in her ’06 comeback. Just don’t see her having enough juice to win a Slam, particularly since she never put in enough time on improvement through her teens and early 20s. But with enough match play can stay in top 20 for three more years.

Nicole Vaidisova: Smooth power and hungry. Looks, talent, and skill have kept her coddled so long I hope she has skill to start being more self-reliant and composed in the heat of battle.

Pay Attention

Svetlana Kuznetsova: ’04 U.S. Open champ rebounded from awful ’05 to finish ’06 ranked number four. Somewhat of a more physical Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (her mentor), if Kuznetsova wants to step into the elite for good, she needs to add polish and patience when trying to attack. I think of all the Russians, she’s got the most tools to get near Sharapova at Slams.

Jelena Jankovic has a power baseline game that could carry herdeep into the second week.

Jelena Jankovic: Goofy girl felt like quitting in the spring but then her power baseline game began to click. Not sure if she’s got the focus for anything more than the surprising semi swing.

Anna Chakvetadze, Ana Ivanovic, and Tatiana Golovin: Raw but compelling, each is likely three years away from best tennis. But each could crack quarters Down Under.

Dinara Safina: Skilled and powerful, but also prosaic like most of the Russians.

Shahar Peer: Israeli can pound the ball and threaten anyone.

Sell Your Shares

Patty Schnyder, Elena Dementieva, Anastasia Myskina, Daniela Hantuchova: At best they each round out the ensemble.

 Your comments are welcome. Let us know what you think about Joel Drucker's article by emailing us here at TennisOne .

Jimmy Connors Saved My Life: A Personal Biography

Longstanding TennisOne writer Joel Drucker has just published his first book, Jimmy Connors Saved My Life: A Personal Biography.  Mr. Drucker provides the most thorough examination ever attempted of one of the most complex characters in recent sports history. The book is both a comprehensive biography of the controversial tennis star and a look at how the author's life intersected and conflicted with Jimbo's. 

The book includes extensive analysis of Connors' tennis, including the vital impact his mother had as his primary coach, as well as the significant work the great Pancho Segura did in his formative years. Also covered are a great many of Connors' most important matches, as well as many personal interactions Drucker had with Connors that reveal unusual sides to him.