“They ought to play the women’s final on opening day,” Jimmy Connors wisecracked at the 1976 US Open. “Everybody knows who’s going to be in it.” Today tennis is no longer one of the most formful of sports. The depth of talent is too great.
Even though the incomparable Serena Williams dominated the women’s game in 2013, she managed to win only two of the four Grand Slam events. When No. 2 Victoria Azarenka, No. 3 Maria Sharapova, No. 9 Caroline Wozniacki and No. 12 Ana Ivanovic were upset on Day 3 of Wimbledon, everyone was sure No. 1 Serena, the five-time champion, was an even more overwhelming favorite to capture the title than her pre-tournament 1-4 odds. “No disrespect, but she just needs to stay on her feet,” predicted cocksure Martina Navratilova on Tennis Channel. Instead, Sabine Lisicki ambushed Serena and then lost to Marion Bartoli, another darkhorse, in the final. Need more evidence of unpredictability? Seven different women have won the last seven French Opens.
Among the men, the “Big Four”—Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray—have seized 34 of the last 35 majors and the past two Olympic gold medals. Yet the No. 1 year-end rankings continue to fluctuate, chiefly between archrivals Nadal and Djokovic.
Keeping in mind baseball sage Yogi Berra’s maxim, “Prediction is very hard, especially about the future,” this fearless forecaster plunges ahead.
Youth will be served. Pundits pontificating about how it’s impossible for a teenager to win a major title, and not much easier for players in their early 20s, will eat their dogmatic words. Simona Halep, a 22-year-old Romanian who took six titles (second only to Serena’s 11) in 2013, will seize her first Grand Slam crown. Halep, the world No. 1 junior in 2008, has former superstar Justine Henin’s physique and dedication, a stronger backhand, and almost as much athleticism.
More relaxed than ever, she finished 2013 with a career-high No. 11 ranking. Although Halep fared poorly (4-4) at the majors, she scored big wins elsewhere over top-tenners Agnieszka Radwanska, Marion Bartoli, Petra Kvitova, and Wozniacki, and was the only woman to take titles on all three surfaces. “Halep moves beautifully, it’s not just her foot speed, but also her footwork,” said Tennis Channel analyst and former doubles standout Corina Morariu. “She always seems to be in position to hit the ball [effectively]. The biggest improvement in her game is her ability and willingness to move forward and play offensively.” That sounds a lot like Henin and Federer, her idols.
Click photo: Is this the year for the extremely talented Grigor Dimitrov to finally break the stranglehold the Big Four have on the majors?
Three more 22 year olds—Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, and Jerzy Janowicz—will crack the top 10 and replace current occupants No. 6 Roger Federer, No. 9 Richard Gasquet, and No. 10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. “They are great players, they are dangerous,” praised Rafael Nadal. “Janowicz is having a great season. He’s already played the semifinals at Wimbledon. He already played the final of Masters 1000 in [Paris] last year. Raonic, he was able to play a [Rogers Cup] final last week at home. That’s a lot of confidence for him. He’s a very, very dangerous player. And Dimitrov has everything to be in the top. I’m sure they will be in the top.”
While none of the three, who share explosive serves and aggressive forehands, will finish the year in the top 3, two of them will make both the Wimbledon and US Open semis. And Dimitrov, the most athletic of the trio, will break through and win his first Grand Slam title at either Wimbledon or the US Open in 2014.
Sports fans love a good argument. And after Nadal defeats Djokovic in four sets to take a record ninth French Open in 2014, the “Greatest of All-Time” (GOAT) debate will rage as never before. Federer fanatics proclaim: “The Mighty Fed won 17 major titles, the all-time record. Case closed!” Rafa loyalists rebut: “Rafa won 14 majors, plus an Olympic gold medal which is even harder to win than a major, and he ‘owned’ Federer with a 22-10 match advantage, including a whopping 8-2 edge at majors. The clincher is that Federer won 12 of those 17 titles against weak opposition during 2003−2007. Rafa won 11 of his 14 majors and his gold medal, during 2008−2014, the Golden Era of men’s tennis, including winning records against Djokovic and Murray during their primes.” Many tennis magazines and websites run polls asking readers to pick their GOAT. The results are extremely close, but the 27-year-old Spanish superstar has time on his side to win this argument.
Watch out for Karen. This Karen happens to be a 6’6” Russian, who takes no prisoners. Seventeen-year-old Karen Khachanov (pronounced “Karen Hachanoff”) ousted No. 72 Albert Ramos 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 and overpowered No. 27 Janko Tipsarevic 6-4, 6-4, whacking 14 aces, at the Kremlin Cup in October. “[Khachanov] will be top 20 [in the Emirates ATP Rankings] by end of 2015, and that’s my prediction,” former world No. 1 Yevgeny Kafelnikov told ATPWorldTour.com. “I watched him play yesterday for the first time [against Tipsarevic], and I don’t say this about many people, but this kid is the real deal. He doesn’t have the junior game anymore, and he definitely knows what he’s doing on the court… and that’s very impressive. He has good ground strokes. He moves well and serves big. He’s solid off both wings and hits many winners. His demeanor is very good and he has the whole package.”
Click photo: Can the incomparable Serena Williams surpass Steffi Graf's 22 majors? It's quite a challenge, but with most of her toughest rivals now retired, she has an excellent chance.
Serena stalks Steffi’s Graf’s Open Era record. After Serena won the US Open for her 17th major title, Chris Evert, who is tied with longtime rival Martina Navratilova at 18 Grand Slam singles titles, told the New York Times: “We’re already kind of teasing each other about Australia. Because she’s going to tie us in Australia if she wins it, and then next year she could pass Martina and me, and then there’s Steffi [22 majors], and that’s very doable. And if she passes by Margaret Court [24, the all-time record], that’s like Hercules, a Herculean effort to me. That would be almost not human to win what, eight more?” Superwoman Serena will wow the tennis world again in 2014 by winning two more Grand Slam titles to surpass Evert and Navratilova. After capturing the 2014 US Open without dropping a set, hyper-confident Serena vows: “I’m going to top Steffi.”
Whither Roger? The glorious career of 17-major champion Federer, who took tennis to dizzying heights of athleticism and shot-making for a decade, declined markedly in 2013. Age finally slowed the 32-year-old Swiss by a half step. His relatively weak backhand became a glaring weakness. Hampered by back soreness, he lost several miles per hour on his serve, and averaged only 2.4 aces per set. After winning just one minor title (Halle) and failing to make a Grand Slam final, Federer’s confidence fell as much as his results. Neil Harman, tennis writer for The Times (UK), put it best: “What the sport does not want to see is a regularly wounded Federer with players not fit to string his racket taking bigger bites out of the carcass.” Unfortunately, this worst-case scenario is virtually a certainty in 2014. Federer, who has declared he plans to compete at the 2016 Olympics, will announce his retirement soon after the 2014 US Open.
Click photo: Age catches up to even the greatest of champions, so will 2014 spell the end for Roger Federer?
In 2007, ESPN commentator Patrick McEnroe declared, “Anyone who is against Player Challenges is out of their minds!” McEnroe changed his mind, though, at the 2013 Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati. “This match shouldn’t be over!” he rightly objected after the instant replay showed that Rafael Nadal’s match point winner was actually wide of the sideline—an erroneous line call Roger Federer did not challenge—in Nadal’s 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 quarterfinal victory.
Similarly, Li Na should have won the first set against Radwanska with an ace at Wimbledon. Regrettably, the serve was called wide, and Li did not challenge it. Line-calling errors abound—by players, lines-people, chair umpires, TV commentators, and spectators—and sometimes they occur on big points, games, sets, and matches, and unfairly change the course of matches. Put simply, Hawk-Eye line-calling technology is terrific, and Player Challenges are terrible. In 2014, players, officials, fans, and the media will increasingly advocate that the badly flawed Player Challenge system be abolished. Instead, extremely accurate Hawk-Eye (also used in football and cricket) will flash its line calls a split second later on large stadium screens.
Could smart racquets, like the Babolat PLAY Pure Drive, alter the way the game is played?
A smart racket will change tennis forever, perhaps radically. Some pugnacious players have a chip on their shoulder, and now some smart players will have a chip in their rackets. The Babolat Play racket, used by Radwanska, Li Na, and Fabio Fognini, looks and feels like a regular racket. But a sensor integrated into the handle gives you access to every facet of your game from stroke type to ball impact to endurance, technique, and power. After you play, you plug in the USB port to download the data to mobile phones and computers.
The ITF approved the $399 racket, starting in January, with the proviso that the information cannot be downloaded during a tournament match—only after play or during a rain delay. Nadal uses the Babolat Aeropro Drive racket, but may want to switch frames, just like many other pro and recreational players. “It could become a habit, something usual after sport: sitting with your friends to compare each one’s technical data,” Eric Babolat, the owner of the firm, told DPA.
Who will be the Next Great American Woman Player after Serena and Venus Williams, the best sister duo in sports history? The odds are great she’ll be one of several emerging, highly talented African-Americans. Sloane Stephens (age 20) upset Serena at the 2013 Australian Open and finished the season at No. 12. Madison Keys (18) surged from No. 137 to No. 38 in a breakthrough season that included a big 6-3, 6-2 win over No. 5 Li Na in Madrid. Victoria Duval (18) upset 2011 champion Samantha Stosur at the US Open. Sachia Vickery (18), Taylor Townsend (17), and the Black sisters, Tornado (15) and Hurricane (12), also boast excellent potential. Either the natural athlete Stephens or the heavy-hitting Keys will reach a Grand Slam final in 2014.
On Nov. 23, 2013 in Washington, D.C., the Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change met with representatives from the NBA, WNBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, and the U.S. Olympic Committee (USOC) to discuss the effects of climate change on these leagues and the work the organizations are doing to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
“Whether it’s the slow death of pond hockey or increasing heat for football practices, global warming is negatively affecting the games we play and the sports we love,” said Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). “And just like steroids have distorted some of our sports records, carbon pollution is distorting our climate, breaking records, and leading to more extreme weather. So whether you root for the Miami Heat, the Oklahoma Thunder, the Carolina Hurricanes, or any team in any sport, you should be concerned about global warming’s effect on sports and the role teams and leagues have in taking action to cut pollution.”
Dangerous levels of air pollution, extreme heat, tornado-force winds, torrential rain, floods, and massive wildfires disrupt several tournaments (chiefly in Asia), turning some matches into bizarre battles with ferocious Mother Nature. Alarmed, leaders of the ITF, ATP, and WTA, presidents of national tennis associations, pro tournament directors, and their sponsors convene an emergency meeting in December in London.
Is this the beginning of the end of outdoor pro tournaments?
Paul Fein has received more than 30 writing awards and authored three books, Tennis Confidential: Today’s Greatest Players, Matches, and Controversies, You Can Quote Me on That: Greatest Tennis Quips, Insights, and Zingers, and Tennis Confidential II: More of Today’s Greatest Players, Matches, and Controversies. Fein is also a USPTA-certified teaching pro and coach with a Pro-1 rating, former director of the Springfield (Mass.) Satellite Tournament, a former top 10-ranked men’s open New England tournament player, and formerly a No. 1-ranked Super Senior player in New England.
