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10 Reasons Why Roger Federer Is No Longer No. 1 Paul Fein “The king is dead, long live the king.” − Dijana Djokovic, after her son, Novak, upset Roger Federer at the Australian Open. “Roger Federer has five to seven years of greatness ahead of him,” predicted former world No. 1 Jim Courier. That bold vote of confidence came after Rafael Nadal dethroned Federer in an epic Wimbledon final to end the sensational Swiss’s record-tying streak of five straight titles. On August 18, Nadal ended another record, Federer’s reign of 237 straight weeks at No. 1. John McEnroe calls the 2004-07 period, when Federer won 11 of the 16 major tournaments, “the four greatest years ever played in the history of Open tennis.”
At the start of 2008, many experts were predicting when The Mighty Fed would smash Pete Sampras’s hallowed record of 14 Grand Slam titles as well as how many major titles he would eventually amass. Now some of these experts, including McEnroe, are wondering if Federer, who has 12, will ever break the record and whether Rampaging Rafa, the French and Wimbledon champion, can be stopped by anyone on any surface. 1. Nadal, truly “a force of nature” because of his great physical strength and phenomenal intensity, has improved steadily and substantially. Nadal’s backhand, once a solid but not overly impressive shot, has become such a major and versatile weapon that Federer praised it as “a second forehand.” The muscular Spaniard has added power to his first serve, which averages about 115 mph now, and vicious spin to his second serve. He positions himself much closer to the baseline during rallies. His wicked approach shots and sound volleys enable him to win as much as 75 percent of the points at net in many of his matches. In short, he’s now added a formidable offense to his always near-impregnable defense. To complete the package, Nadal is smarter strategically than ever, and particularly against Federer, whom he has whipped four straight times and leads 12-6 in their rivalry. 2. Novak Djokovic has emerged as a superb No. 3 who could surpass Federer, or even Nadal, by the end of 2008. In the August 18 rankings, Nadal has 6700 points, Federer has 5,930 points, and Djokovic 5,105 points, far ahead of No. 4 David Ferrer’s 2,865 points. Besides whipping Federer 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 en route to capturing the Australian Open, the much-improved Serb routed Nadal 6-3, 6-2 while winning the Indian Wells Masters, took the Rome Masters, gained the Roland Garros semis, and again beat Nadal 6-1, 7-5 in the Cincinnati Masters semis. His talent, physique and game, especially his superior backhand, match up quite well against Federer, with only his stamina remaining a question in long, grueling matches on hot days.
3. Other young players are rapidly improving, too, namely 6’6” Juan Martin del Potro, 6’6” Marin Cilic, and 6’3” Ernests Gulbis. All are only 19 and boast bold and powerful games. This summer Del Potro captured tournaments in Stuttgart, Kitzbuhel, Los Angeles, and Washington while giving up only two sets. Cilic gained the round of 16 at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Frenchmen Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils, both splendid but injury-prone athletes, made the Australian final and French semis, respectively. But Federer’s biggest immediate threat comes from No. 6 Andy Murray, a 6’3”, 21-year-old Scot. While still somewhat unpredictable (he was upset in the Olympics first round by barely known, No. 74 Lu Yen-hsun of Chinese Taipei), he has matured mentally and physically and can beat anyone on a given day. For example, Murray has knocked off both Federer and Djokovic the last two times each has faced him. 4. Federer has been rarely hampered by injury or illness since turning pro in 1998, though he was grief-stricken by the tragic death of his coach Peter Carter in a 2002 car accident. His good fortune ran out, though, in late 2007 and early 2008 when he was enervated by mononucleosis. He may have caused or worsened his ailment by playing three November exhibitions in Asia against Sampras when he normally would have rested. He also suffered from a case of food poisoning prior to the Australian Open. Whether these two factors were responsible for Federer’s losing decisively to Djokovic in Melbourne is debatable.
5. Federer, now 27, hasn’t significantly improved his game since taking over the No. 1 ranking in February 2004. One could argue that his serve became a more effective weapon, especially on big points, and that he refined his tactics. On the other hand, Federer, who served and volleyed to his first Wimbledon title, rarely serves and volleys anymore on any surface. That has reduced him to being an aggressive groundstroke and volleyer, much like quite a few other players. But even getting to net is problematical these days because some foes whack explosive groundstrokes. Recently Federer, who carries a heavy schedule of tournaments, exhibitions and off-court endorsement and media activities, offered a reason for his game’s stagnation. “It’s a lack of practice. I haven’t had time to practice whatsoever since February. I blame myself the most.” 6. Much like the retired Justine Henin, Federer earned praise for his stylish and versatile one-handed backhand. Unfortunately, this almost anachronistic shot is a weakness that opponents are increasingly exploiting in several ways. They sometimes overpower and out steady Federer’s backhand during rallies, overwhelm it with rocket serves (he won only 9 percent of first return points against Murray, 11 percent against Mardy Fish, and 22 percent against Andy Roddick), and force it into making passing shot errors. The two-handed backhands of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, No. 5 Nicolay Davydenko and No. 8 David Nalbandian, among others, are decidedly better than Federer’s one-hander. 7. With Federer’s backhand taking more punishment than ever, that has put more pressure on his terrific forehand to hit more winners, and often from more difficult court positions and against more aggressive shots. Not surprisingly, his forehand has increasingly misfired and erred. For example, in his 6-4, 7-6 Olympics quarterfinal loss to James Blake, Federer committed 19 unforced forehand errors. And when a player struggles with one of his two best weapons, even a champion is in big trouble.
8. Federer isn’t playing the crucial points, especially break points and tiebreakers, as well as he did during his halcyon period. That is partly why he’s won only two minor tournaments, Estoril and Halle, and had a dismal 3-7 record against top-10 foes. Against Djokovic in Melbourne, Fed converted only 2 of 9 break points and lost the final set tiebreaker 7-5; against Nadal in Monte Carlo, he saved only 1 of 7 break points against him; and against Nadal at Wimbledon, he converted only 1 of 13 break points. In defeats against Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic, he lost both tiebreakers, and he decisively lost (7-2) a crucial tiebreaker in his Olympic’s setback against Blake, who was beaten by Federer in their eight previous matches. 9. After defeating Monfils in the French semis, a confident-sounding Federer said, “I believe very strongly that this is my year.” Going into Wimbledon, Fed rated himself “the big favorite.” While it’s too soon to panic, his confidence is clearly ebbing. At the same time, his opponents, aside from cocky Djokovic, are respectful and wary about criticizing a wounded champion, but they sense their chances to pull an upset are much greater than they’ve been in almost five years. 10. When losses started mounting early in 2008, Federer acknowledged that he had “created a monster” during his four-year domination. His incredible success had created great expectations and pressure every time he took the court. Now that “monster” has come back to haunt him in every press conference when he loses. “Sometimes you would like to think people would not want to shoot me quite so quickly, but what can I do?” Fed told The Times (UK). Winning the U.S. Open will silence the naysayers, at least for the time being. Your comments are welcome. Let us know what you think about Paul Fein's article by emailing us here at TennisOne.
Paul Fein Paul Fein, a USPTA teaching pro and former top 10-ranked New England men’s open player, has won more than 20 writing awards. His 2002 book, Tennis Confidential: Today’s Greatest Players, Matches, and Controversies, published by Brassey’s, Inc., was listed No. 1 among tennis books by Amazon.com and BN.com. Information about the book and how to order it can be found at www.tennisconfidential.com. His second book, You Can Quote Me on That: Greatest Tennis Quips, Insights, and Zingers, was published by Potomac Books, Inc. (formerly Brassey’s, Inc.) in 2005 and was listed No. 1 among tennis books by Amazon.com and BN.com. For more information, visit www.tennisquotes.com. His third book, Tennis Confidential II: More of Today’s Greatest Players, Matches, and Controversies, was published April 28, 2008 and was featured on the home page of Amazon.com and has been listed No. 1 among tennis books there since April 1, 2008. Paul recently received a 1st Prize award and two 2nd Prize awards for his tennis articles in the 2007 United States Tennis Writers' Association writing contest. It was his sixth 1st Prize award in the USTWA writing contest. |
