Will Berdych Break Through?

Adam Gale

Tomas Berdych plays cold fusion tennis. His is clean power, produced by a precise combination of timing, technique, and strength, and harnessed through meticulous, early preparation. At his best, he’s like a giant Andre Agassi. Arguably, no one has ever put together a more formidable offensive baseline game.

In years gone by, the Czech was criticized for lacking the mental strength to make the most of his talent. Even here, however, he has made great strides. Last year, according to ATP statistics, Berdych was noticeably more likely to win breaks points than he was points overall (72% break points saved vs 67% service points won and 42% break points converted vs 38% return points won). He is now playing with vigor and belief.

With this combination of attributes, surely he should have won something big by now. Despite being in the top ten consistently for nearly three years, he’s won no majors, and only one masters 1000 title, way back in 2005. So what is Tomas Berdych — a sleeping giant or a paper tiger? What can he do to convert his potential and win a slam?

The Obstacles

One of the biggest differences between Berdych and the slam-hogging Big Four is his relative inconsistency. As the table above shows, each of them is significantly more likely to beat lower ranked players than he is. Their healthy record against both top ten opponents and those further below them has allowed them many more chances to win majors than Berydch, whose aggressive game leaves little room for a bad day, or bad conditions.

When things aren’t going his way, the Czech has shown a tendency to fall into an error-spiral. His meltdowns might not be as dramatic as, say, Marat Safin’s, but they have much the same effect. He loses matches he shouldn’t lose, and that the Big Four wouldn’t lose. To maximize his chances, Berdych surely needs to learn to manage his bad days better.

What the above table also shows is that Berdych’s record against the Fearsome Foursome remains poor, and indeed this is the main reason he hasn’t won a slam. At each of the last three Australian Opens, at Wimbledon in 2010 and at the US Open in 2012, he has lost to one of them late in the tournament. He also lost close matches at the French Open to Soderling in 2010 and del Potro in 2012. Though he has scored significant wins against the best opponents, Berdych has far more often been the loser, and usually in a close match. How can he turn this around?

Improving his Game

The Czech’s record against Federer has been healthy of late. Whether it’s Federer’s age or Berdych’s improvement, the balance of power seems to have titled away from the Swiss. The main task Berdych faces right now, therefore, is getting past Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray 2.0.

These three will go down in history as the first back-board players of the modern racquet era. Their combination of talent and physicality has given them the unprecedented ability not just to survive when way behind the baseline, but to remain actively in the rally. Berdych may be their equal in offensive tennis, but he has no answer to their defensive, counterpunching coverage.

As a result, even when Berdych attacks with his full ferocity, these guys still have a fair chance to win the point. When Berdych’s on the ropes, on the other hand, he has little prospect of punching his way out.

The world number six is unlikely to be able to improve his serve, forehand or backhand further, and it’s practically impossible to imagine that his movement and defensive coverage could reach the levels of a Murray or Nadal. What he can do, however, is improve his net play.

This is an area that Berdych has been working on for some time. More than del Potro, who has a similarly devastating baseline game, he has made real efforts to pursue the net approach as a way of finishing points and cutting through his opponents’ often suffocating defensive net. It’s certainly not as common for him to hang back when he has a good chance to come in, and that is encouraging.

Unfortunately for the Czech, he’s more reminiscent of Ivan Lendl at the net than Martina Navratilova. His volleys are fine, but he often seems rushed, or surprised that his approach shot comes back at him so hard and low. The only way he’ll get round this is by coming in even more, until he feels at home in the forecourt. It may be painful, but if he were to improve further to the level of, say, his countryman Radek Stepanek, coming in at the right times off the right shots, it could seriously tip the balance against his toughest rivals just a few points in his favor, which could make all the difference.

Improving his Match Play

“I would say I didn’t come up with my best game today and that’s what’s deciding today.” — Berdych interview after Australian Open defeat to Djokovic, 2013.

“I made like 62 [unforced errors] in all the matches before I get to the semifinals.” — Berdych interview at the US Open 2012, when asked whether the wind contributed to his 62 unforced errors in his semi-final defeat to Murray.

The biggest difference between a great champion and a good player is that a great champion performs at their best when it matters the most. Berdych has typically played well in big matches, but clearly he doesn’t tend to think it was well enough. His great opponents, on the other hand, so often seem to bring their best when they really need it, to find a way of winning whatever the circumstances.

It’s interesting at this point to look at the scorelines of the various matches Berdych has lost against the Big Four. In each of his last three major defeats against them, Berdych took one of the first two sets, but still lost in four; in each case, he was very much in the match for somewhere between 90 and 150 minutes, before seeing it slip away.

Is this just coincidence, or could it be a pattern? Does Berdych start well but then dip, or do the likes of Nadal and Djokovic just improve as the battle heats up? Reviewing several of these matches does give the impression that it is the latter rather than the former case, but either way the fact remains that he’s been outfought rather than outplayed on numerous occasions. How could he turn this around? Other than by improving his net game — quality breeds confidence, after all — he’s really only left with: “play better matches.”

The Problem of Expectations

We shouldn’t — can’t — expect Berdych to be another champion of the caliber of the Big Four, just waiting to join their ranks. Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are very special players. They have a rare combination of natural aptitude, application, and belief. Normally, there would only be one or two champions of this immensity at any one time, not four, and certainly not five.

Can Berdych overcome them to win a major? Yes — he has already demonstrated that he can play well enough, that he has the ability. To do it, however, he really will have to play several fantastic matches in quick succession, and hope that he doesn’t run into one of them doing the same. Everything will have to come together at the right time — his level on the day, their level on the day, and the way they each handle the big moments. It’s possible then, but I’m not sure it’s likely.

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