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Can del Potro Crack the Top 4? Adam Gale Juan Martin del Potro must feel like he has a mountain to climb. Three years have passed since he won the US Open, and what has he got to show for it? The mountain just seems to keep growing; the summit is always just beyond sight. Del Potro remains, like everyone else, in the shadow of the Big Four.
Injury prevented him from competing for most of 2010, and from competing at his best in 2011. Real progress came last year, with the Argentine winning a career high 79% of matches played, going deep at three of the majors, earning an Olympic medal and returning to the top ten. Impressive though all this was, however, he still didn’t win any of the big titles. So what held him back? Or rather, who held him back? The answer is unsurprising. Though del Potro didn’t play Nadal or Murray in 2012, he faced Djokovic four times and Federer no fewer than eight times. Only three of these encounters ended in victory. Crucially, the Swiss and the Serb were responsible for knocking him out at the late stages of three majors, the Olympics and the World Tour Finals. The message for del Potro is clear: true greatness will always be one step away unless he finds a way to beat the Big Four, consistently and when it counts.
It’s not as though he lacks the weapons to do so. Del Potro’s forehands cut the court like depleted Uranium ordinance. His serve is booming and varied, his backhand steel-plated, resilient against even the strongest ad court hitting. All this power he harnesses, remarkably, without sacrificing consistency or touch. More importantly still, he plays the big points with conviction and belief. Despite these great strengths, del Potro has struggled against the Big Four (his career head to head record against them is 10-32) because of his relative weaknesses, most significantly his movement, footwork and defense. Unfortunately for Delpo, this is not likely to change. He will never have the scrambling speed of Nadal, or the smothering counterpunching coverage of Murray. Such cards are just not in the hand he was dealt. But are things really as hopeless as this sounds? After all, for a long time nobody thought Djokovic could overcome the Big Two; for longer, no one believed Murray could beat the Big Three. Both of these men found ways to improve. So what can del Potro do to make it into the Big Five? Backhand Down the Line Del Potro’s backhand may not be as dramatic as his forehand, but it is still very strong and technically sound. He gets a good shoulder turn and transfers his weight very well into the shot. But have you ever noticed that he doesn’t often go down the line with it? Or that when he does, it rarely has the venom of the crosscourt?
In the course of researching this piece, I analyzed the first sets of four of Juan Martin’s matches: vs Djokovic at the World Tour Finals and the US Open 2012, vs Federer at Basel 2012 and vs Nadal at the US Open 2009. In these four sets, there were 150 rallies, of which del Potro won 76. Of these, only one point was won directly as a consequence of a del Potro backhand down the line (in a baseline point, either as a winner or by forcing an error), compared to seven won with the crosscourt backhand. The down the line backhand is a shot some players find more natural than others. Del Potro clearly prefers the crosscourt, and that’s fine, but can he afford to be predictable against the likes of Djokovic or Federer? Would it not make him all the more dangerous if they feared his down the line delivery as much as his crosscourt? He may have to take some chances –and accept some misses -in order to build this shot into his arsenal, but the improvement to his game would be tangible.
First Steps It may be surprising to learn that, at least in the sets against Nadal at the US Open and Djokovic at the World Tour Finals, del Potro was relatively stronger in longer rallies than in shorter ones (in the other two sets, he was either notably stronger in both or notably weaker in both).
Given his obvious first strike weaponry, why should this be the case? The answer is perhaps to be found in his feet. Often, del Potro’s response to a particularly deep, aggressive return, or indeed to a very short, off-pace return, can appear relatively sluggish. It seems they don’t call him the Tower of Tandil for nothing. Being tall and heavy does not mean he has to be slow off the mark, however. Del Potro’s movement side to side, once the rally has a rhythm, is impressive. Working on split stepping as quickly as possible after the serve might mitigate the difficulties he currently has when facing ballistic returns from the likes of Djokovic and Murray. The Net
Like most big-serving, aggressive baseliners, del Potro will no doubt be sick of being told to come into net more. Some small part of me would like to drop it and let him stay back happily…but then the hecklers have a point, haven’t they? With hard, flat hitting, good hands and a wingspan like his, the net approach should be a profitable tactic. Yet, in those same 150 rallies mentioned above, the Argentine made a deliberate choice to approach (rather than being drawn in) on only ten occasions, winning six. Given how relentless the defending from some of his opponents is, it would surely be worth incorporating the tactic more into his game to finish points where he has an advantage. His problem at the net isn’t really technical, of course. It’s more a question of confidence, which is the child of experience. Del Potro will never be an Edberg or a Rafter in the forecourt, but he might learn to approach more, like Roddick or Djokovic did. Both of those players overcame a natural reluctance to leave the baseline, and in both cases it added something to their game. It may not be comfortable, but learning to take the chance would undoubtedly be worth it in the long run. The Slice We all know what del Potro’s plan A is, but what’s his plan B? When power strikes to the baseline aren’t winning him points, does he have anything else to fall back on? The answer, currently, is no. Sure, there’s the occasional drop shot or net approach (see above), and he sometimes adds more topspin to his backhand, but essentially changing pace is not in his dictionary. It could be. The Argentine knows how to play a slice, after all, defensively or against an opponent’s slice. A few years ago, this was all Nadal did with the shot, but he worked on it, until it became a weapon of sorts, a searing tactical cut that helps him manipulate the point and take away rhythm from his opponents. Now, Rafa has options where before he did not. Would del Potro not benefit from the same, particularly given the difficulties someone of his height can have with low balls? It can be all too easy to look at what those in the limelight do and suggest ways they could do it better. Almost certainly, del Potro and his team will have been working tirelessly to improve, to give him that extra something to help him beat the Big Four. Whether he will be able to enhance his game as Nadal, Djokovic and Murray all have done over the past five years remains to be seen. It will not be easy, and will doubtless require that he go out of his comfort zone. Is it possible though? Can he genuinely reach their level and sustain it, becoming once again a major slam contender? Who knows? But if anyone can do it, Juan Martin can. Australian Open Perceptive readers will have noted del Potro’s early exit in the Australian Open, in a five set battle against the talented Jeremy Chardy. Interestingly enough, Delpo showed signs of greater aggression with the backhand down the line in this match, striking five such winners. This was clearly not enough, however, to negate the problems caused by his errant forehand. Chardy played an excellent match, but one suspects that the Big Four would have found a way through (see Djokovic surviving Hurricane Wawrinka in the fourth round). The main difference between the Big Four and del Potro, as outlined above, is that they have quality in so many areas of the game, and depend less on their big weapons firing on all cylinders. In essence, they have stronger plan Bs than he does. While it’s true that del Potro will never be able to play the slow, crafty game like Murray or Federer, it will nonetheless help him to become more consistent, and to win unexpectedly tough matches like this one, if he has more options when the big guns misfire.
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