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Andy Murray – Taking Stock and Cutting Him Some Slack (Maybe) Jim McLennan The Scot is 24, hails from Dunblane, and carries the considerable weight of the British expectations when it comes to Wimbledon on his 6’3” frame. He turned pro in 2005, has had quite a number of coaches since then, currently ranks 4th, with a career high ranking of 2nd in 2009. He was won over $16 million dollars in prize money and the hope in Britain is that he may still capture that elusive Grand Slam title. In 2011 his best results include losing to Nadal in the semifinals of Wimbledon 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4, where he held wins over Gasquet and Lopez in the previous rounds, winning Queens the run-up to Wimbledon where he beat Cilic, Roddick (3 and 1), and Tsonga in the finals 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, lost to Nadal yet again in the semifinals of Roland Garros 4-6, 5-7, 4-6, and at the Australian open where he was favored to capture the title, he beat Dolgopolov and Ferrer to reach the final, only to be beaten quite easily by Djokovic 4-6, 2-6, 3-6. So this, at least so far, has been a pretty darn good year. But (always that darn but) there were elements in his Australian Open final performance that left many observers shaking their heads (this includes me). Somehow, when his matches tend to go south, his vaguely juvenile histrionics take over, and instead of a focused professional trying to adjust tactics and temperament, we see a tortured soul seeking relief from the players box, from the powers above, or perhaps even for a way out of the glare of center court. I am not sure if I can name another player who has comported himself in such a manner. Yes, he is darn close to capturing the big one. Yes Rafa and others say it is just a matter of time until he breaks through. But to my eye there are two unanswered questions. One is his attitude – can he truly play on his own without constant reference to his box and without somehow appearing to blame his box for his misfortunes. But the other, my friends, is his darn serve.
The Ricoh ATP Matchfacts, provide an unusual glimpse into the nuts and bolts of his game. Serve numbers that include aces, 1st serve percentage, 1st serve points won, 2nd serve points won, service games won and break points saved. On the return ledger Ricoh tracks points won returning the 1st serve, points won returning the second serve, break points converted, and return games won. Looking at the top five players ranked in each category, some of the stats closely mirror the rankings, where others do not follow those rankings at all. Murray is an outstanding counter puncher, he plays with guile, moves extremely well, understands about getting the ball in play and making an opponent earn his points. And his return stats bear this out, Murray is ranked 3rd in points won returning the 1st serve, 4th in points won returning the 2nd serve, 14th in break points converted (this may be a statistical blip) and most importantly ranked 4th in return games won. For this one Novak is first, winning 39% of return games, Rafa 2nd at 36% and Ferrer third at 36%. You're Only as Good as Your Second Serve The serve stats tell a very different story. Hitting 305 aces he ranks 17th (not bad). 59% first serve percentage ranks him 49th (phew), 74% of 1st serve points won ranks him 22nd (not too bad) but 48% of 2nd serve points won ranks him 58th – and this stat more than any other explains the Australian open blowout where the best returner in the game took this Scot apart.
Sampras owed his 7 Wimbledon titles to what he described as the “best second serve in the game.” And if you and I (or these professionals for that matter) are only as good as our second serve, then this is the weak link, the chink in Andy’s armor, and to my mind the heart and soul of the Andy Murray rebuild project. In the sequence above ( Murray's first serve), Andy's serve looks pretty good, he can get the first serve mph’s up into the high 120’s and even occasionally the low 130’s. But to my eye there is a lot of forward body action in the serve. Note particularly how far his left arm swings on the follow through, even how far his right arm and racquet swing on the follow through, or how he jackknifes forward at the finish. All those elements will add to racquet speed, but equally those elements will all influence, if not corrupt, balance. Meaning there is much too much going on. And when the matches go well these minor issues matter little or nothing at all. But if and when things are difficult, if not going south, little problems generally lead to the first cracks in the armor. On that score, even though he beat Fish in the semis in Cincinnati in this match, on a few occasions he flubbed his first serve quite low into the net. Great servers miss their targets by inches, poor ones miss their targets by feet. His second serve, to mind, lacks disguise, confidence, and punch. Often this delivery comes in at 80mph or less, and if you look closely at the hand and racquet, Andy is pushing more than whipping the racquet at impact. Federer moves this racquet edge to edge, but in this example watch the racquet face at impact and a few frames afterward.
Whereas with Federer, we see considerably more “ACTION” with the racquet head at the top of the swing. In the finals of the Australian Open Murray’s fastest serve was 216 KMH, his 1st serve average speed was 194 KMH and his average 2nd serve speed was 144 KMH. And though Djokovic routined Federer in the semis 7-6, 7-5, 6-4, Fed’s fastest was 203 KMH and his average 2nd serve speed was 157 KMH. My point simply is that for anyone, professional or amateur, the first and second serves should be similar in motion and action, and not wildly dissimilar in speed. Fed, to my mind the best server in the game today (not the biggest but yes the best), averaged 189 KMH on first serves and 157 KMH on seconds, a difference of 22KMH. But Andy again averaged 194 KMH on first and 144 KMH on seconds, a different of 50 KMH. That is too darn much in any arena. Take a look in the mirror. How is your second serve – similar to or wildly different from your first delivery? Can you place it with confidence into the corners? Think about where you want to be with your game a year from now. And at the end of the day, what stroke more than any other will help you get there? The second serve! Your comments are welcome. Let us know what you think about Jim McLennan's article by emailing us here at TennisOne.
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