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Wimbledon Rankings Preview
Women
There are four Grand Slam tournaments in tennis, but there is only
one Wimbledon. It is unique -- not just because it is Wimbledon, but
because it is the only Slam played on grass. Indeed, it is almost the
only event on the WTA Tour to be played on grass; the Tour spends only
four weeks playing on grass (two of them at Wimbledon), and only one
other grass event (Eastbourne) reaches even Tier II status.
This makes Wimbledon a unique event for the rankings. Players who do
well on fast surfaces -- such as last year's winner Jana Novotna and
last year's finalist Nathalie Tauziat -- often earn a very large
fraction of their points at this slam, while players more accustomed to
slow surfaces can easily be upset by lower-ranked players who are more
accustomed to the fast conditions.
#1 seed and #1-ranked Martina Hingis probably doesn't have much to
worry about as far as her ranking is concerned. Going into Wimbledon,
she has a 787 point lead over #2-ranked Lindsay Davenport and a 1665
point lead over #3 Steffi Graf. It's true that she has more to defend
(as a semifinalist last year, she has over 450 points to defend, to
Davenport's 218 points and Graf's 110 points). But even if we subtract
those off, she has more than a 500 point lead over Davenport, and is
more than 1300 points ahead of Graf. Even if Hingis loses in the first
round, Davenport would have to reach at least the semifinal to regain
the #1 ranking, and more likely the final. If Hingis can repeat her
semifinal showing, Davenport (whom she would face in that semifinal --
though Davenport has never gotten beyond the quarterfinal at Wimbledon)
would have to win the event. If Hingis reaches the final, Davenport
obviously cannot reach #1 (particularly since Davenport is seeded to
face Hingis in the semifinal). And Graf cannot reach #1 whatever she
does.
The situation of #2 Lindsay Davenport is more interesting. The
Wimbledon seeding committee chose to seed her #3, promoting Steffi Graf
to the #2 seed. This is very unusual for the women (though the seeding
committee often alters the men's rankings).
Historically, however, It is clearly justified; Graf has won
Wimbledon seven times. And it could even be true following the
tournament. Davenport, as noted, has a bare shot at regaining the #1
ranking. But she also runs a risk of falling to #3. Entering Wimbledon,
she leads Graf by 878 points. If we take off last year's points,
however, the lead falls to 770 points. This is a large margin, but if
Graf wins the tournament (beating Hingis in the final), and Davenport
loses early (Round of 16, or possibly even the quarterfinal if Graf
earns a lot of quality points and Davenport very few), then Graf could
move up to #2.
Monica Seles is ranked and seeded #4. Her chances of moving up are
very slight. The highest she can reach is #3, and that only if she wins
Wimbledon and Graf loses in the Round of 16 or earlier. Seles is much
more likely to move down; once we subtract off the points from last
year's Wimbledon, she is only about a hundred points ahead of #5-ranked
Venus Williams. If Williams can win one more match than Seles at
Wimbledon, she might move up to #4. If Williams wins two more matches
than Seles, she is certain to reach #4.
#5 seed Jana Novotna has to be wondering what she has to do to get a
break. The injury she suffered at Roland Garros left her unable to
defend her title at Eastbourne, and in the process knocked her down to
#6 in the rankings. And for the second straight year, the Wimbledon
committee seeded her according to her WTA rank rather than her previous
year's performance. This makes her situation difficult. To win, she must
beat Natasha Zvereva (who beat both Graf and Seles at Wimbledon last
year, and is coming off a fine run at Eastbourne – and who is
presently Novotna's doubles partner) in the Round of 16, then world #2
Lindsay Davenport in the quarterfinal, then #1 Martina Hingis in the
semifinal, then her old nemesis Steffi Graf in the final. And even if
she manages all that, she still cannot move higher than her present
ranking of #6. If she loses early, she could fall as low as #9. (The
good news for Novotna is that she has not lost before the semifinal at
Wimbledon for a long time.)
#6 seed Venus Williams will enter the tournament ranked #5, and with
a real chance to move up to #4 if she can go further in the tournament
than Monica Seles. To reach #3, however, will require a very good
showing: If Steffi Graf loses in the first round, Williams could
possibly move up to #3 by reaching the final (but only if she plays all
the highest-ranked players along the way). If Graf wins even one match,
Williams must win Wimbledon, beating most of the top players (including
potentially Graf in the quarterfinal) along the way. Williams is almost
certain to retain the #5 ranking, however; Novotna, as defending
champion, cannot overtake her. In fact, the only player who can pass her
is #9 seed Mary Pierce, and only if Williams loses early. If Williams
reaches the Round of 16, Pierce would have to win Wimbledon to reach #5.
If Williams reaches the semifinal, Pierce cannot overtake her at all.
#7 seed Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario has fallen to #8 in the rankings as a
result of her early loss at Eastbourne, and has quarterfinalist points
to defend. This means that, even if she wins the event and the players
ahead of her all lose early, she cannot move higher than #6. Even with a
win, #7 is a possibility. She probably will not fall below #8, though
surprise showings by low-ranked players might push her down to #9 or
barely possibly #10.
#8 seed Nathalie Tauziat was actually the #9-ranked player at the
time the Wimbledon seeds were announced (the #8 player was Mary Pierce,
who was given the #9 seed). Tauziat was, however, the finalist at
Wimbledon last year, while Pierce lost in the first round. This no doubt
explains Tauziat's promotion. And it has proved justified; Tauziat moved
back up to #8 at Eastbourne. The fact that Tauziat was in the final last
year, however, means that she has a great deal to defend (over 600
points) and very little room to "make points." Even if she
wins the tournament, she cannot move higher than #6, and might only
reach #7 or even stay at #8 (depending on how other players do). She
probably has to reach at least the semifinal even to remain in the Top
Ten. An early loss could move her down to the #12-#15 range.
#9 seed Mary Pierce has actually moved up to the #7 ranking, and lost
in the first round last year. She therefore can hardly move down
(barring a surprisingly strong showing by a player in the #10-#15
range). Winning the event could push her as high as #4, though only if
Monica Seles and Venus Williams both do badly (losing in the
quarterfinal or earlier). A #5 ranking is perhaps more likely. Even if
Pierce does not do well, she has a good chance to pass Novotna to take
over the #6 position; Novotna must reach the semifinal just to equal
Pierce's current ranking total.
Serena Williams was #10 in the original Wimbledon draw (though ranked
#11 entering the tournament). She was forced to withdraw due to illness,
and will not be able to defend the points from her third round showing.
This will leave her with only eleven tournaments -- by far the least of
any top player -- but probably will not hurt her much in the rankings.
It is even possible that she will move back up to #10 if Nathalie
Tauziat fails to defend her points and no other lower-ranked player
steps up. More likely she will remain at #11 or possibly fall a spot or
two.
Julie Halard-Decugis is the #11 seed, but fell outside of the top 15
as a result of her inability to compete in the Netherlands. Still, she
has won two of the last three grass events she played, and must be
considered a real threat. Plus she has relatively little to defend. As a
result, her position in the Top 20 is nearly secure. If she wins the
tournament, she might move as high as #6, though this requires her to
earn many quality points and can only happen if several higher-ranked
players do poorly. She is more likely to end at #7 or #8 if she wins.
Amanda Coetzer is the #12 seed, but a solid result at Eastbourne has
pushed her back to #10. Last year she lost in the second round. This
year she has a somewhat easier draw in the early rounds (though she
faces Steffi Graf in the Round of 16). Because she has so little to
defend, she is likely to stay at #10 or #11 even if she loses early. A
win would move her up to #6 or#7, depending on quality points.
Seeded #13 is Sandrine Testud, who beat Monica Seles at Wimbledon in
1997 but lost their rematch in the Round of 16 in 1998. (And their draw
is such that they would meet in the same round this year.) Although
Testud reached the Round of 16 last year, her opponents were all outside
the Top 100, so she has relatively few points to defend. Still, the
players in the #10-#15 range are so close that an early loss could cost
her several ranking positions. If she wins, she could reach as high as
#6 -- but only if Pierce and Novotna lose relatively early. #7 or #8 is
the likely result.
Barbara Schett is the #14 seed, and has a fairly easy draw. She lost
in the second round last year, meaning that she has little to defend.
She is actually ahead of Testud and Halard-Decugis in secure points, and
so could move up a ranking position or two even if she loses early. A
big success could also propel her higher; a win would probably make her
#7, and #6 is a possibility if Pierce does poorly.
Amelie Mauresmo, who would have been the #15 seed at Wimbledon, had
to withdraw from the event due to the injury she suffered at Roland
Garros. Fortunately for her, she lost in the second round last year, and
so will not lose many points. Depending on the performance of the
players around her, she might even move up in the rankings, though a
drop of one or two positions is more likely.
Dominique Van Roost was ranked #16 when the Wimbledon draw was
prepared, and was given the #15 seed. She has since moved up several
positions in the rankings. What's more, the withdrawal of Serena
Williams from the draw was a significant stroke of luck for her. Before
Williams withdrew, Van Roost was slated to face Anna Kournikova (who has
an excellent life record on grass) in the first round. Now Van Roost
will face a lucky loser. This gives her a much better chance of
defending at least some of her points last year (Van Roost reached only
the Round of 16 in 1998, but had two wins over Top 30 players in her
three wins, so she has quite a few points to defend). If she wins the
tournament, she could move up to #6 (if Novotna does poorly) or #7 (if
Novotna does well). If she does poorly, she could fall as low as #18.
Natasha Zvereva received the final "regular" seed as a
result of Amelie Mauresmo's withdrawal from the tournament. But she has
a difficult task if she wishes to move ahead. Last year she reached the
semifinal, with wins over Steffi Graf (who had a special ranking of #3)
and Monica Seles (then #5). This means that Zvereva has over 500 points
to defend. To make up those points, she will have to once again reach
the semifinals, presumably beating Novotna in the round of 16 and
Davenport in the quarterfinal. She would then have to beat Hingis and
Graf to win the title. Even if she accomplishes this, she probably will
reach only #8. If she loses to Novotna, she will probably fall out of
the Top 20.
Anna Kournikova was ranked #18 at the time the Wimbledon draw was
made, and so became the #17 seed only after Serena Williams withdrew
from the tournament. Gaining a seed may not have helped Kournikova; she
originally was in Van Roost's section of the draw, and Kournikova's
grass record is much better than Van Roost's. So the promotion may
actually cost Kournikova some quality points, as Kournikova will face
Venus Williams in the Round of 16 (under her previous draw, she would
have faced Nathalie Tauziat, whom she came within one game of beating at
Eastbourne). Even so, Kournikova has a big advantage over most of the
players in the #10-#20 range: She was injured during last year's
Wimbledon (and missed quite a few weeks after it), meaning that she has
nothing to defend until late summer. Thus Kournikova can hardly lose
more than one ranking position at Wimbledon, and likely will gain at
least one ranking position for every win in the early rounds (more in
later rounds). A win would put her at #6 or #7. If she could by some
chance repeat her semifinal showing of 1997, she would probably come
close to the Top 10. Even if she does poorly, she will probably move up
in the weeks following Wimbledon.
If Kournikova is the seventeenth seed and on the rise, the next
player on the ranking list (Patty Schnyder) has clearly been in a
decline. The good news is, Schnyder lost in the second round last year,
and so has a great deal of room to move up. The bad news is, unless
another player withdraws and she earns a seed, she has a tough draw -- a
top 30 player (Dechy) in the first round, then Zvereva in the third
round, Novotna in the Round of 16, and so on up the ladder. A win would
give her an outside shot at #6, but her likely result would be #8.
Also having a tough year is former Wimbledon champion Conchita
Martinez, who faces being unseeded at Wimbledon for the first time in
years. Nor is she likely to be promoted to a seed; for that to happen,
two more players would have to withdraw. Martinez, like Schnyder, has a
difficult draw; while her first two opponents are low-ranked, she faces
Sanchez-Vicario in the third round, then Halard-Decugis, then Hingis.
Last year she reached the third round. An early loss could therefore
take her back out of the Top 20; a win (as with most players ranked this
low) gives her a bare possibility of #6 but the likelihood of a #8
ranking. |